Iran fires the beginning gun this week on an election to interchange President Ebrahim Raisi, whose demise in a helicopter crash may complicate efforts by the authorities to handle a activity of even larger consequence – the succession to the supreme chief.
Once seen as a doable successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ageing final decision-maker, Raisi’s sudden demise has triggered a race amongst hardliners to affect the collection of Iran’s subsequent chief.
Khamenei, 85, seeks a fiercely loyal president within the June 28 election to run the nation day-to-day and be a trusted ally who can guarantee stability, amid manoeuvring over the eventual succession to his personal place, insiders and analysts say.
“The next president is likely to be a hardliner unwaveringly loyal to Khamenei with a background in the Revolutionary Guards. Someone with an unblemished background and devoid of political rivalries,” stated Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz.
Registration for candidates opens on Thursday, though that’s solely the start of a course of that may see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog physique that disqualifies candidates with out at all times publicising the explanation.
Three insiders conversant in the pondering on the high degree of the Iranian institution stated there had been discussions among the many management concerning the deserves of varied methods of dealing with the presidential contest.
“The prevailing outcome was that the primary (goal) should be securing the election of a president who is intensely loyal to the supreme leader and his ideals. A low voter turnout will inevitably secure it,” stated one of many sources, who just like the others declined to be recognized because of the sensitivity of the subject.
That aim — victory for a hardline president in a position to form a clean transition on the pinnacle of energy when Khamenei finally dies — however presents a conundrum for the ruling clerics managing the vote subsequent month.
To make sure the winner is a diehard Khamenei loyalist, it’s seemingly the upcoming election might be dominated by hardliners with outlooks much like his, the insiders and analysts say.
LIMITED CHOICE FOR VOTERS
But proscribing the selection on the poll is more likely to dampen voters’ curiosity and preserve turnout low, dealing an unwelcome blow to the status of the 45-year-old Islamic Republic.
The quandry is a well-recognized one in Iran. In a race the place those that run are fastidiously reviewed, usually the problem for the clerical institution is securing a excessive turnout.
The Guardian Council will publish the record of certified candidates on June 11.
Raisi clinched victory in 2021 on a turnout of about 49% – a major drop from the 70% seen in 2017 and 76% in 2013 – largely amid widespread voter apathy after the Guardian Council eradicated heavy-weight conservative and reasonable rivals.
Critics say the turnout additionally mirrored discontent over financial hardship and social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the demise of a younger girl arrested by the morality police in 2022.
Including low-key reasonable candidates on the poll could be a method to entice a bigger turnout, some analysts say.
Currently sidelined from energy, reformists stay devoted to Iran’s theocratic rule however advocate improved relations with the West, and gradual strikes in the direction of extra freedom of expression and a loosening of strict Islamic costume code.
Reformist former senior official Mohammad Ali Abtahi stated the pro-reform camp would contest the election if its candidate was permitted to face, though he added it was not clear how a lot political house reformists can be allowed.
“This cycle of low voter turnout, which has ensured hardliner victories in past parliament and presidential elections, can be changed …. But I have my doubts about any potential political opening,” he stated.
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES
However, the reformists’ electoral energy stays unclear, as some voters consider they didn’t deliver larger freedoms within the durations after they have been in energy previously decade.
Moreover, the 2022 protests uncovered a widening rift between the reformists and demonstrators demanding “regime change”.
“Even allowing a few known moderates to stand … might not be enough to get people to turn out. Voters have been repeatedly misled by the idea that reform-minded candidates … would produce real change,” stated Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew.
A brand new president can be unlikely to make any change to Iran’s nuclear or overseas coverage, each of that are managed by the supreme chief.
The registration of candidates may embody Parviz Fattah, a former Guards member who heads an funding fund linked to the chief, and Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator who in 2001 ran Khamenei’s workplace for 4 years, the insiders stated.
Fattah will make his last choice “after meeting some senior authorities on Wednesday”, a 3rd insider stated.
Interim President Mohammad Mokhber and former parliament speaker and a Khamenei adviser, Ali Larijani, have additionally been talked about in Iranian media as doable candidates. Larijani was barred from standing within the 2021 presidential race.
Source: www.anews.com.tr