A brand new revision of the strategic map within the Middle East is on the playing cards with the downfall of Syria’s Bashar Assad in a lighting anti-regime operations.
The dictators had for almost 14 years held off an rebellion that many believed had been exhausted. But his downfall adopted a collection of battlefield convulsions for different allies of Iran.
Israel has all however decimated the Hezbollah management in Lebanon since September, whereas the assassination of Hamas figureheads has dealt main blows to Assad’s key backer Tehran.
Andreas Krieg, a safety specialist at King’s College London, stated that Iran and different “Axis of Resistance” members would now have to focus on their “home turf.”
“And so the axis will lose its transnational flavor and its regional strategic depth.”
The lightning pace at which the anti-regime forces, spearheaded by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, took Aleppo after which the nation shocked the entire world.
No one in Syria, or within the capitals that opposed or supported Assad, had anticipated Damascus to fall so shortly. Attention had been centered on Israel’s Gaza genocide and Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The 59-year-old Syrian strongman lengthy appeared safe with the backing of his Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah allies.
Some Arab neighbors had even began strikes to normalize relations, strained because the civil warfare began with the repression of anti-government protests in 2011.
But HTS smashed that outlook in just some days when cities fell and statues of Assad’s feared father Hafez Assad have been toppled.
Weakened allies
The Hamas assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, drew Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” allies right into a battle that has uncovered their weaknesses.
Hezbollah’s navy energy has been undermined and its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, has been assassinated by Israel.
Israel had already been attacking Hezbollah’s navy and monetary provide traces from Iran by means of Syria.
That help faces a recent menace from the brand new masters of Damascus who will level to Hezbollah’s essential function in conserving Assad in energy for thus lengthy.
Iran’s remaining supporters in Yemen and Iraq, whereas mounting occasional assaults on the United States and Israel, seem unable to impact main change.
Russia, embroiled in a resource-sapping warfare with Ukraine, additionally faces high-stakes choices as its largest Middle East naval base is at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
“They are likely going to lose that,” stated Krieg. “I can’t see how the new regime or the new socio-political order will allow the Russians to remain after everything the Russians have done to prop up the Assad regime.”
Türkiye, a key supporter of the Syrian opposition, is the large regional winner from Assad’s fall, Krieg added.
But whereas it has affect, it doesn’t management the opposition, he stated.
New Middle East
With battle being fought on a number of Middle East fronts, the area may also must deal with the brand new U.S. administration of Donald Trump.
“In a moment of complete uncertainty, this transformative event makes everything so unpredictable,” stated Aron Lund, a specialist on the Century International assume tank.
“It is not just Assad’s regime falling, it is also the question of what comes in its place. And how long does it take to crystallize? So you could easily have various types of regional contests play out in Syria,” Lund advised AFP.
Various international locations within the area had been backing completely different anti-Assad factions in Syria since 2011.
But the United Arab Emirates and different Gulf states had just lately restarted relations with Assad, after over a decade of his isolation.
Many states have been terrified of some anti-government teams in Syria. They will face even larger challenges from the brand new Damascus rulers, stated Lund.
But Israel, and its mates and enemies, count on the frontlines to shift once more when Trump returns to the White House in January.
From Morocco to Saudi Arabia and Israel, international locations might be hoping to safe Trump’s backing by means of his famend deal-making diplomacy.
He had stated previously that the United States shouldn’t be concerned in Syria’s warfare. But Trump may also must take care of a brand new Middle East.
Source: www.dailysabah.com