Türkiye is predicted to play a pivotal function in rebuilding Syria’s economic system following the autumn of the regime of Bashar Assad earlier this month, consultants opined, whereas representatives of some Turkish sectors anticipate they may leverage their experience and contribute to employment and manufacturing within the war-torn nation.
Under a long time of Baath Party rule, Syria’s financial progress was severely hindered, leaving the nation with deteriorated financial indicators and main challenges, together with rampant inflation and a disrupted commerce steadiness.
With its strategic location linking Asia, Europe and Africa, Syria is now poised for a possible financial restoration, notably in commerce.
Türkiye, one of many area’s largest economies, imported $363.5 million (TL 12.75 billion) value of Syrian items and exported $2 billion in merchandise to the nation final 12 months.
Industry representatives spotlight alternatives for elevated commerce cooperation between Türkiye and Syria, notably in agriculture, development and vitality.
The shares of main Turkish development firms rallied sharply within the first days after the autumn of Assad, and analysts mentioned there could be important alternatives for Turkish firms within the development, cement and metal sectors following the political shift in Syria.
Political stability, worldwide assist
Ali Mamouri, a analysis fellow at Deakin University in Australia, instructed lately Anadolu Agency (AA) that the highway to Syria’s reconstruction will likely be removed from clean within the brief time period.
“A new government would need to prioritize stabilization efforts to restore public confidence, attract foreign investments and rebuild essential infrastructure. However, recovery will depend heavily on internal political cohesion, the support of international actors and the region’s response,” he mentioned.
Mamouri emphasised the necessity for the brand new authorities to develop a complete restoration plan and take rapid measures to stabilize the nationwide forex.
“The destruction of infrastructure has severely impacted the economy,” he mentioned. “Rebuilding roads, power plants and communication networks will be essential to revitalizing economic activity and creating jobs.”
Mamouri highlighted that addressing humanitarian wants, together with entry to meals, schooling and well being care, is essential throughout the reconstruction course of.
“While political and economic sanctions will likely remain in place for some time, Syria may need to negotiate with regional powers and international organizations for humanitarian assistance, loans and trade agreements,” he mentioned, including that lifting sanctions ought to be the nation’s high precedence shifting ahead.
He famous that Syria’s oil and pure fuel reserves may play an important function in its restoration. However, years of civil struggle have considerably lowered manufacturing, necessitating substantial investments and stability to revive the vitality sector.
He additionally identified the significance of rebuilding Syria’s once-thriving agriculture sector, notably in fertile areas close to the Euphrates River.
Additionally, he steered that tourism, bolstered by Syria’s wealthy cultural heritage, may turn into one other main income stream.
Revitalizing industries like textiles and meals processing may additional increase employment and exports.
Mamouri added that Syria’s strategic location permits it to function a key transit level within the East-West commerce community, connecting Iraq, Jordan, Türkiye and Europe.
Türkiye’s function in rebuilding Syria
Mamouri famous that Syria’s 2023 funds, amounting to $5.88 billion, or $256 per capita, is “less than one-quarter of its 2011 level,” in accordance with a UNICEF report.
“Syria’s budget is currently in a dire situation, with limited revenue generation capacity due to the ongoing conflict, economic sanctions and widespread destruction of infrastructure,” he mentioned.
He mentioned the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank haven’t prolonged assist to Syria due to the continuing struggle and sanctions.
“If a new government is established, it will likely need to focus on mobilizing regional and international support for rebuilding and stimulating growth,” he added.
However, amid latest developments, the IMF mentioned earlier this week it was “monitoring the situation” and was able to assist Syria’s reconstruction when situations permit.
“It’s too early to make an economic assessment. We are closely monitoring the situation, and we stand ready to support the international community’s efforts to assist serious reconstruction as needed and when conditions allow,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack mentioned on Thursday.
Regarding Türkiye’s involvement, Mamouri mentioned its experience in development, infrastructure growth and funding alternatives will likely be instrumental in Syria’s restoration.
“Turkish companies could be involved in rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure, including energy, transportation and telecommunications; additionally, Syria’s potential involvement in Türkiye’s plans for regional energy transit from Qatar to Europe. For example, Türkiye could benefit from increased trade and energy cooperation, providing a gateway for regional energy resources,” he mentioned.
Revival of Qatar-Türkiye pipeline
Indeed, the query and discussions about reviving the “Qatar-Türkiye Natural Gas Pipeline,” which was shelved in 2009, have resurfaced following the ouster of Assad in Syria.
Yet, whereas it was initially a key a part of Qatar’s diversification technique, Doha has repeatedly opted towards increasing the venture, prioritizing liquified pure fuel (LNG) as its major export avenue as an alternative, Justin Dargin, senior Middle East vitality knowledgeable on the Middle East Council on Global Affairs instructed AA lately.
“Although a pipeline to Türkiye would align with Türkiye’s ambitions to become an energy hub and could benefit Europe’s energy diversification goals, it is unlikely to be a priority for Qatar at present,” he famous.
Dargin additionally underlined that setting up a transboundary pure fuel pipeline by way of the Middle East faces formidable geopolitical and financial challenges.
He mentioned that geopolitically, the area’s volatility is a significant impediment, including, “A pipeline passing through Syria, for example, would necessitate not only internal stabilization but also cooperation among multiple regional powers with competing interests.”
International support essential for restoration
Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst on the U.Okay.-based consultancy agency Control Risks, in his remarks to AA equally identified that Syria’s economic system has been in a state of extreme disaster, notably since 2019, and this instability is more likely to persist within the coming months.
“The key determinant for an eventual recovery will be the provision of international aid and the lifting of sanctions, or at least the introduction of exemptions, to allow foreign capital to finance reconstruction,” he mentioned, noting that Syria’s productiveness has suffered underneath a long time of authoritarian rule.
Tricaud mentioned essentially the most urgent problem for the brand new authorities will likely be sustaining financial exercise, together with making certain the continuity of public providers and safety.
He steered that an interim authorities may re-establish tax assortment mechanisms and scale back corruption, which might assist generate important income, particularly from customs duties as soon as borders reopen. State-owned enterprises may additionally contribute to stabilizing revenues.
Syrian pound, stabilizing
With Assad gone, the Syrian pound began to get well towards the greenback, moneychangers and merchants mentioned final week, as foreign exchange once more grew to become out there on the native market.
“Everything happened at once: the regime fell, prices dropped, life got better,” Abu Imad, who was promoting greens from his automobile at a sq. in central Damascus, instructed Agence France-Presse (AFP) lately.
“We hope it isn’t temporary,” he added.
Stabilizing and opening up the economic system is seen by economists as essential to encouraging desperately wanted recent funding and the potential return of thousands and thousands of Syrians, together with many from the educated center class, who fled from the struggle.
“Syria has a huge, educated, relatively wealthy diaspora which will want to rebuild the country. They could be growing double digits for years,” a senior regional monetary official instructed Reuters earlier this month, talking on situation of anonymity.
For Türkiye, which hosted many Syrian refugees following the rebellion in 2011, the brand new interval means a shift in labor dynamics but in addition a possible to be concerned in commerce and rebuilding as a consequence of geographical proximity.
Textile sector
In this context, representatives of the textile and retail sectors emphasize that Türkiye is likely one of the international locations that can contribute essentially the most to the reconstruction of Syria.
Ahmet Öksüz, chairperson of the Istanbul Textile and Raw Materials Exporters’ Association (ITHIB), instructed AA on Sunday that there are nice alternatives for Türkiye in Syria as he cited the benefits by way of logistics and proximity.
Pointing to the notable Syrian inhabitants in Türkiye, particularly when evaluated by way of the labor drive, he mentioned: “They were working in many areas. Now that they have returned to their country, it will be in our best interest to establish some production facilities there.”
“Provided that the transition remains orderly, that sanctions are rolled back or exemptions introduced, and that foreign economic assistance is mobilized, including from large multilateral development banks, regional entities that seek to participate in the reconstruction of Syria will likely benefit from access to large-scale infrastructure projects financed by development actors,” Tricaud mentioned.
“Furthermore, foreign players will likely gain access to investment opportunities presenting high potential returns, given the country’s significantly untapped economic potential after years of stymied economic growth,” he added.
Source: www.dailysabah.com