Health specialists have been sounding the alarm concerning the potential pandemic risk posed by chicken flu, which has been exhibiting indicators of mutating because it spreads amongst cows and infects folks within the United States.
There isn’t any assure that chicken flu will ever start transmitting between people and U.S. well being authorities have emphasised that the chance to most people stays low.
The lethal chicken flu variant H5N1 first emerged in China in 1996, however over the past 4 years, it has unfold extra extensively than ever earlier than, reaching beforehand untouched areas corresponding to penguin-haven Antarctica.
More than 300 million poultry birds have been killed or culled since October 2021, whereas 315 totally different species of untamed birds have died throughout 79 international locations, the World Organisation for Animal Health informed Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Mammals that ate the contaminated birds, corresponding to seals, have additionally skilled mass die-offs.
The state of affairs modified once more in March when the virus started spreading amongst dairy cows throughout the United States in one other first.
Fifty-eight folks have examined constructive for chicken flu within the U.S. this 12 months, together with two who had no identified publicity to contaminated animals, in line with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
There are additionally fears that some human circumstances are going undetected. Researchers mentioned final month that eight out of 115 dairy employees examined in Michigan and Colorado had antibodies for chicken flu, suggesting an an infection charge of seven p.c.
Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist on the U.S.-based SAS Institute, informed AFP there have been now a number of components suggesting that “avian flu is knocking on our door and could start a new pandemic any day.”
“A bird flu pandemic would be one of the most foreseeable catastrophes in history,” learn the headline of a New York Times opinion article late final month.
‘Simple step’ away
There are nonetheless a number of limitations stopping H5N1 from spreading simply between folks, together with that the virus must mutate to grow to be higher at infecting human lungs.
But analysis printed within the journal Science final Thursday demonstrated that the model of chicken flu infecting U.S. cows is now only a single mutation away from with the ability to unfold extra successfully amongst people.
Virologist Ed Hutchinson of the University of Glasgow mentioned this implies that H5N1 is simply “a simple step” away from changing into “more dangerous for us.”
And final month, genetic sequencing of a Canadian teenager who was very sick with chicken flu “implied that the virus had begun to evolve to explore ways of binding more effectively to the cells in their body,” Hutchinson mentioned.
“We do not yet know whether H5N1 influenza viruses will evolve to become a disease of humans,” and different limitations stay, Hutchinson emphasised.
But the extra animals and totally different species the virus is allowed to contaminate, the “more likely it is to adapt to better infect people,” Schaeffer mentioned.
And if a chicken flu pandemic have been to interrupt out, it will be “remarkably severe” in people as a result of we now have no built-up immunity, she added.
The U.S. farm employee circumstances have been comparatively delicate thus far. But almost half of the 904 human circumstances of H5N1 recorded since 2003 have been deadly, in line with the World Health Organization.
Raw milk: ‘Terrible concept’
Tom Peacock, a virologist on the Imperial College London, informed AFP there are a number of causes to be “less pessimistic about the possibility of a pandemic.”
Antiviral therapies and vaccines are already obtainable for chicken flu, marking a giant distinction from COVID-19 in 2020, he identified.
To keep away from the worst-case state of affairs, many well being researchers have referred to as on the U.S. authorities to ramp up testing and guarantee info is shared between companies and international locations.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture introduced plans to check the nation’s milk provide for chicken flu.
Of explicit concern is uncooked, or unpasteurized, milk, which has repeatedly been discovered to be contaminated with chicken flu.
Vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who’s U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s decide for well being secretary, is understood to be a fan of uncooked milk.
California uncooked milk producer Mark McAfee, whose merchandise have repeatedly been recalled attributable to chicken flu, informed The Guardian final week that Kennedy’s staff had approached him to information the upcoming administration’s uncooked milk coverage.
Schaeffer mentioned that any suggestion of lifting restrictions on uncooked milk was “unequivocally a terrible idea and definitely jeopardizes the health of humans.”
Source: www.dailysabah.com