Northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is gearing up for its long-awaited parliamentary elections, scheduled on Oct. 20 after a six-year delay. The marketing campaign season formally began on Sept. 25, with candidates from numerous political events inserting marketing campaign posters and banners all through the area’s streets, calling for extra assist from over 2.8 million eligible voters. Additionally, 251,000 voters have already participated in particular voting preparations on Friday.
The Election Commission has established 1,266 polling stations outfitted with 6,318 poll containers. In complete, 1,191 candidates from 13 political events and 124 impartial candidates are vying for 100 seats within the KRG parliament.
Originally scheduled for late 2022, the elections had been postponed 5 instances on account of intense political disagreements between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over the area’s electoral system, significantly regarding the allocation of minority quota seats. Its parliament was suspended in May 2023, delaying the elections amid an ongoing monetary disaster fueled by disputes with the Iraqi central authorities.
Speaking to Daily Sabah in an unique interview, Mehmet Alaca, an skilled on Iraqi and KRG politics, mentioned, “The ongoing tensions between the PUK and the KDP have significantly damaged the achievements the KRG has made so far and continue to do so. Both the KRG’s status and its economic and political gains over the past 20 to 30 years have been severely undermined. If these tense discourses during the election process persist after Sunday’s elections, it is clear that these gains will erode even further.”
Minority quota controversy
One of essentially the most contentious points main as much as this election has been the revision of the parliamentary quota for minorities. Previously, the KRG parliament allotted 11 seats to minority teams: 5 for Turkmens, 5 for Christians, and one for Armenians.
However, a ruling by the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court has now lowered this to 5 seats: two for Turkmens, two for Christians and one for Armenians.
Alaca questions, “The main point of contention here is whether this quota benefits minorities themselves or the dominant powers.”
The quota resolution has drawn sharp criticism from minority teams, who argue that lowering the quota weakens their political illustration within the area. Despite the controversy, voter turnout is predicted to stay robust. The ruling got here in response to lawsuits from members of the PUK, who contended that the 1992 electoral legislation was being “politically manipulated,” significantly “by the KDP to consolidate power.”
In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA), Aydin Maruf, the KRG minister of non secular affairs and a candidate for the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF), introduced that the occasion is operating as a unified record within the upcoming KRG elections, aiming for higher illustration for the Turkmen group. He criticized the present system, which permits just one consultant every from Irbil and Sulaymaniyah, arguing it’s insufficient for the inhabitants of about 350,000 Turkmen in these areas.
However, in keeping with Alaca, “the minority quotas have typically worked in favor of the KDP, which is why the PUK has long been uncomfortable with it and even filed a lawsuit with the Federal Court in this regard.”
Election marketing campaign overview
The KDP’s marketing campaign messaging appears fragmented, with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s faction extra targeted on responding to provocations from the PUK relatively than delivering a transparent and cohesive platform. Additionally, the occasion’s consideration is split because it prepares to type the tenth cupboard, with Masrour Barzani busy launching numerous initiatives throughout the area. Meanwhile, Nechirvan Barzani, the area’s president and a deputy chief of the KDP alongside Masrour, has taken a quieter method this time, contributing much less visibly to the marketing campaign.
Under Bafel Talabani’s management, the PUK has taken a notably extra aggressive method on this election cycle. Talabani’s marketing campaign has been characterised by direct and provocative statements, easy however impactful slogans, and using spiritual themes to rally supporters. His technique is distinct from earlier PUK campaigns, as he has adopted a confrontational model, ceaselessly mentioning Masrour Barzani by identify in his speeches. This direct criticism of the KDP has escalated tensions between the 2 events.
Alaca deems the continued election course of “fierce,” particularly when Talabani is taken into account. From statements resembling “we will destroy the KDP, we will take Irbil” to facial expressions, Talabani’s marketing campaign “is progressing very aggressively,” Alaca mentioned.
“Even though the PUK is the second strongest political actor in KRG’s political order, it behaves like a very aggressive opposition actor in this election campaign,” the skilled mentioned.
Alaca mentioned, “What is interesting is that Talabani continues this rhetoric not only in Sulaymaniyah but also in Duhok, where the KDP is very influential.”
Talabani’s concentrate on straight addressing the KDP, significantly by way of assaults on Masrour Barzani, has compelled the KDP right into a defensive place, limiting the house for smaller opposition events to make their mark. Talabani’s new model of speech, extra assertive and easy, seems designed to enchantment to voters pissed off with the established order whereas growing friction between the area’s two dominant events.
The New Generation Movement, led by Shaswar Abdulwahid, is positioning itself as a recent various, though its message has not modified considerably from earlier campaigns. Many view this election as a turning level for the New Generation, as remaining in opposition with out gaining affect might weaken its relevance.
“I don’t think it will gain much momentum,” Alaca mentioned when requested concerning the New Generation Movement’s potential on Sunday, and added, “Their vote share and number of seats may remain similar to the last term.”
The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU), led by Salahaddin Bahaaddin, has chosen a standard and respectable marketing campaign model, avoiding the boldness that usually resonates with voters. However, the occasion has gained momentum after successful a authorized case in Iraq’s Federal Court concerning the non-payment of salaries to staff within the KRG area. This victory compelled each the Iraqi authorities and the KRG to deal with the wage subject, easing monetary pressures on residents.
This success has boosted the KIU’s credibility, positioning it as a celebration able to delivering actual change on essential points like wage distribution. Consequently, the KIU is predicted to attract elevated voter assist within the upcoming elections, significantly from these affected by the continued financial disaster. The occasion continues to be a robust competitor to the KDP in Duhok, the place it has persistently opposed the ruling occasion for over 20 years.
Alaca additionally pointed to the Islamic events’ “similar” election marketing campaign tone to that of the PUK. “It’s almost as if they all emerged from the same mold, acting as a unified force, voicing their opinions with strong opposition to the KDP,” he mentioned.
“This is understandable because the KDP doesn’t share power either administratively or economically,” he added.
The Kurdistan Justice Group, beforehand often known as the Kurdistan Islamic Group and led by Ali Bapir, is taking a extra subdued method in its marketing campaign this election season. The resolution to rebrand displays a need to succeed in a wider viewers by transferring away from the “Islamic” label. However, this variation might threat alienating longtime supporters who valued the occasion’s Islamic identification, probably impacting its success on the polls. Despite these hurdles, the Kurdistan Justice Group is predicted to take care of stable backing, significantly in Ranya and the Garmian area, the place it has traditionally had affect.
The People’s Front, led by Lahur Talabani, is at present dealing with some confusion about its political course after being faraway from the PUK by Bafel Talabani. Lahur introduced the formation of his personal occasion to attach with voters, hitting the streets, partaking with folks in native markets and chatting with them personally about their considerations.
The Helwest (Stance) motion, led by Ali Hama Salih, gives a novel and balanced critique of each the KDP and PUK, positioning him as one of many extra impartial voices within the election. Salih has beforehand served as a member of parliament and has been actively concerned in addressing monetary points throughout the legislature, contributing to his reputation.
While he could not safe widespread assist, his concentrate on sensible monetary considerations might resonate with voters searching for a real third possibility in a political panorama dominated by the 2 predominant events.
Kurdish political panorama
In the upcoming elections, the KDP and PUK will face off once more. The KDP is specializing in nationalist rhetoric and interesting to Kurdish delight, whereas the PUK is positioning itself as a reformist various, criticizing the KDP’s “self-imposition” and promising new insurance policies to sort out the area’s monetary disaster and enhance relations with Baghdad.
Meanwhile, the KDP emphasizes its governance document and Kurdish unity, searching for assist from voters involved about nationwide identification and regional safety. As tensions rise between the 2 events, Nechirvan Barzani has referred to as for a “silent and civil” marketing campaign, urging all events to concentrate on guarantees that construct belief with the residents. He burdened that the area’s stability depends on political cooperation and constructive dialogue.
On Oct. 15, 2024, Aysar Yassin, spokesperson for the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, introduced that 110,000 biometric playing cards stay uncollected throughout the Kurdistan Region. Distribution figures reveal that 989,820 playing cards have been given out in Irbil (with 25,846 nonetheless uncollected), 1,073,671 playing cards in Sulaymaniyah and Halabja (with 72,400 uncollected), and 725,709 playing cards in Duhok (with 12,139 but to be collected)
On the identical day, Emad Jamil, the top of the media crew for the IHEC, introduced by way of social media that: “The United Nations will provide 25 observers, the European Union will send three observers, civil society organizations will contribute 47 observers, and election observation organizations will supply 1,604 observers on Election Day.”
Concerning the media, Jamil indicated that “31 international channels and a total of 101 Arabic and international media outlets will cover the sixth parliamentary elections in (the region).”
On Election Day, 13 polling stations may have 276 observers. The U.N. will present 25 observers, the EU will ship three observers, civil society organizations will contribute 47 observers, and election remark organizations will provide 1,604 observers.
The stakes are excessive for this election because the KRG continues to navigate by way of financial hardship and political uncertainty. The extended monetary dispute with Baghdad has left the area struggling to pay public sector salaries and handle its finances. With the election lastly on the horizon, voters will probably be searching for options to each the political stalemate and the financial challenges they face.
Source: www.dailysabah.com