Iran has vowed to punish Israel over a latest strike on its Damascus consulate broadly blamed on Israel, and fears are rising that an imminent response may threat triggering a broader battle.
However there are a selection of various ways in which Iran may retaliate, and never all pose the identical threat of escalation, in accordance with consultants.
With warnings constructing on Friday {that a} response may come quickly, France suggested its residents to not journey to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Iran or its ally Lebanon.
But precisely what occurs subsequent possible depends upon how Iran chooses to hold out its retaliation, which might possible come in opposition to the backdrop of the battle between Israel and Hamas.
The incontrovertible fact that not one of the governments concerned wish to provoke an escalation doesn’t essentially defend in opposition to a full-scale disaster breaking out, mentioned David Khalfa, Middle East specialist on the French assume tank Jean-Jaures Foundation.
“Miscalculations are entirely possible. Deterrence has an eminently psychological aspect,” he advised AFP.
“The belligerents are at the mercy of any mistake or slip-up that could cause a cascading series of consequences.”
The air strike that struck Iran’s consulate constructing within the Syrian capital on April 1 killed 16 folks, together with seven members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
The most senior determine killed was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander within the Quds Force, which runs Iran’s overseas army operations.
Iran and Syria have blamed the assault on Israel, which has not confirmed its involvement however is broadly thought-about to be accountable — together with by its allies.
– ‘Tehran doesn’t need direct battle’ –
“Israel’s air strike on the facility was intended to tell Tehran that it will be held accountable for the actions of Hamas and other non-state allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the Huthis in Yemen,” mentioned the Soufan Center, a non-profit organisation that analyses world safety challenges.
After the strike, Iran’s supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Israel “must be punished and will be punished”.
The White House, which has maintained the United States would stand agency behind its ally Israel, emphasised on Friday that Iran’s threats had been “real”.
The US additionally despatched its high commander for the Middle East, US Central Command chief Michael Kurilla, to Israel to speak issues over.
Iran has an arsenal able to hitting a variety of Israeli targets, together with infrastructure, airports or key power manufacturing websites.
The Soufan Center mentioned that the posture adopted by Israel and the United States “suggests they expect Tehran to conduct its attack using its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as armed drones”.
But for the reason that consulate assault, Iran has remained obscure about precisely the way it will reply.
Eva Koulouriotis, an unbiased Middle East analyst, mentioned: “Iran continues to be threatening to reply whereas sending regional and worldwide messages that it’s searching for a political choice various to a army response.
“What is certain is that Tehran does not want a direct war with Israel, at least at the current stage,” she advised AFP.
– ‘Only unhealthy decisions’ –
Iran is “facing a dilemma,” Michel Duclos, a former French diplomat, wrote on the web site of the Institut Montaigne assume tank.
“It is undoubtably not sure enough of its strength that it could consider an escalation with Israel with a light heart,” he wrote.
“If however it does not respond, it risks losing some credibility in the region, including among armed groups who pledge allegiance” to Iran, he added.
Iran sponsors armed teams in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon which make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in opposition to Israel they usually appear to be on the entrance line greater than ever, mentioned Farzan Sabet, an analyst on the Geneva Graduate Institute.
Iran may probably reply by requesting these teams ramp up the variety of their assaults, or enhance weapon deliveries, Sabet wrote on X.
“This option is more deniable, lower political cost, and less chance of direct blowback.”
Other doable choices together with a strike in opposition to Israeli diplomatic missions overseas, which might have the drawback of involving a 3rd nation.
Iran may additionally try “terrorist attacks on US diplomatic facilities in or outside the region,” the Soufan Center mentioned.
Khalfa mentioned that with the April 1 strike, “Israel wanted to change the rules of the game by hitting the head of the octopus, not just its tentacles, to force Iran out of the shadow war.”
Now, “the Iranians only have bad choices at their disposal,” he added.
Source: www.anews.com.tr