When Russian paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin unleashed his Wagner mercenaries towards Moscow in a quick revolt final yr, President Vladimir Putin appeared frail and uncovered.
However, only a yr after going through probably the most important problem to his authority in almost a quarter-century of rule, the Kremlin chief now seems extra firmly entrenched than ever.
Prigozhin met his demise in a airplane crash simply two months after the mutiny. During the revolt, his Wagner fighters took management of Russia’s military headquarters within the southern metropolis of Rostov-on-Don, downed navy plane, and superior midway to the capital earlier than Belarus brokered a deal to quash the 24-hour rebellion.
And within the aftermath, a bruised Putin carried out a brand new rule: nobody would ever be allowed the identical stage of autonomy once more.
“Until Prigozhin’s rise, we did not have any cases when the commander of a strong military unit was able to have financial, political and media resources at the same time,” mentioned Nikolai Petrov, a fellow on the Chatham House worldwide affairs suppose tank, describing the distinctive place the mercenary boss had acquired forward of his revolt.
Putin allowed Prigozhin to have all of these levers, not solely due to their shut private relationship but additionally as a result of Russia’s floor offensive in Ukraine was dropping momentum and he wanted Wagner’s manpower.
It was a expensive error, one which has since made Putin prioritize management and loyalty when allocating assets, Petrov mentioned.
Not solely is “nobody now unloyal to Putin,” however the 71-year-old has sought “direct and constant control over the most important players,” he mentioned.
The president has ordered sweeping adjustments to the nation’s navy institution in current weeks, paradoxically, one among Prigozhin’s pre-mutiny calls for.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was eliminated, and a number of other senior navy figures have been arrested on corruption costs.
Putin put in technocratic economist Andrei Belousov as his new protection chief, quite than a navy strongman, once more avoiding “any influential leader” who may promote the military’s pursuits on the very prime, based on Petrov.
The reshuffle marked a turnaround from a yr in the past when Putin backed his protection chiefs within the face of Prigozhin’s accusations of rampant corruption, strategic ineptitude and botching the Ukraine invasion.
The key distinction was that Putin had ordered the shakeup out of necessity, not political stress.
“The fact that he’s able to take these steps and challenge the interests and livelihood of senior military figures is a mark of his strength, rather than his weakness,” mentioned Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia on the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
‘Dominance’
Putin additionally demonstrated his energy with an 87% landslide victory within the March presidential elections, devoid of any actual opposition and panned by worldwide observers.
The vote confirmed Putin may “concoct anything he wants and force the population to accept it,” Gould-Davies mentioned.
“It’s an expression of his dominance and power that he can get away with this, rather than the official, published outcome in any way reflecting real support.”
Putin’s big claimed majority was additionally deliberate, Petrov mentioned.
The outcome was “symbolic”: the exaggerated margin of victory was not as a result of Putin “likes to get as many votes as possible,” however quite he needed to present that his reputation was “much higher than before the war,” Petrov advised Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Putin’s solely actual political rival, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic jail colony in February whereas serving a 19-year sentence, additional cementing his energy.
“Taken together with other repressive measures and exemplary prison sentences that have been imposed on other people, he has intimidated, cowed and frightened a large portion of the population now,” Gould-Davies mentioned.
This doesn’t imply help for the Kremlin runs deep, he cautioned.
During the June 23-24, 2023 rebellion, former President Dmitry Medvedev warned in opposition to Russia’s nuclear arsenal falling into the fingers of “bandits,” and different regional officers issued tepid statements urging calm.
But there was no widespread defiance or public outpouring of help for Putin.
Pictures from the southern metropolis of Rostov-on-Don confirmed residents smiling, cheering and taking selfies with Prigozhin and his Wagner males amid the revolt.
Both the favored and elite response to the rebellion confirmed there was little genuine enthusiasm for Putin or the conflict, Gould-Davies mentioned.
“Most people just want to keep their heads down and for the war and regime not to touch them.”
Source: www.dailysabah.com