But one factor is turning into more and more clear: whoever wins Pennsylvania will most likely win the election.
tagesschau24: Let’s begin with a nationwide look. What are the present numbers for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? Who is forward?
Jörg Schönenborn: Basically, there is just one severe assertion that may be made: Donald Trump has made up floor in current weeks – and the remainder is de facto very shut and razor-thin. Polls within the USA ought to at all times be handled with warning on the nationwide stage anyway, as a result of ultimately 50 states and the capital resolve individually.
But the event of Kamala Harris’ ballot scores exhibits that after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, she initially wins after which stays secure at a excessive stage. While Trump is catching up little by little, particularly all through October.
On common, in line with FiveThirtyEight – the companion of the broadcaster ABC – Harris has 47.9 p.c and Trump 47. But expertise from presidential elections in recent times exhibits that it will probably simply be three factors roughly. In different phrases, each are attainable.
And such a close to tie at all times means a slight benefit for Trump. Because the electoral system favors voters within the extra rural, Republican states. So: If Trump comes out on high, then the matter is comparatively clear. But even when he’s behind Harris when it comes to nationwide votes, he may nonetheless change into president.
“Pennsylvania seems to be the most controversial state”
tagesschau24: The swing states, the place the election marketing campaign is especially intense, are in fact the main target. What is the scenario there?
Schönenborn: It is a loopy improvement within the USA. The pink states have change into redder, the blue states bluer. And this time it’s actually only a matter of your entire American public taking a look at seven states. These are the seven states that didn’t have a transparent end result on election evening final time both.
The blue states, that are thought of to be undoubtedly democratic, have a superb 220 electoral votes. Trump with the pink states, particularly in the course of the nation all the way down to Texas, has just below 220. And then all of it depends upon the seven remaining states.
The ones the place the polls are leaning extra in the direction of Donald Trump are Arizona and Nevada, in addition to Georgia and North Carolina. With these states he would wish 270 electoral votes – he wouldn’t have fairly made it.
And then there are three decisive states within the Midwest, that are additionally known as the “Blue Wall”. Things are trying comparatively good for Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan. And then we see that ultimately Pennsylvania appears to be essentially the most controversial state this time. If all this occurs, then you’ll be able to say that whoever wins Pennsylvania may even be president ultimately.
“Democratic electorate even more female”
tagesschau24: Women appear to play an vital position on this election. Why is that, and what can we anticipate?
Schönenborn: We have a feminine candidate for the second time. For some voters, that makes no distinction in any respect – for some, it does. Trump has had a really male-dominated voters since he took workplace. Even the final time, when he didn’t change into president and didn’t get essentially the most votes, he nonetheless had a transparent lead amongst males.
For girls, it was Joe Biden again then. And now we’re seeing that the Democratic voters is turning into much more feminine. But particularly amongst youthful individuals, there may be what Americans name the “gender gap”: There is a cut up – younger girls are very a lot on Kamala Harris’ aspect.
But younger males, typically with an immigrant background, are correspondingly extra on the Republican aspect. There are many Hispanics amongst them, who are sometimes a bit extra conservative. So this “woman against man” line-up can provide the Democrats a lift within the feminine camp and a variety of votes. But it’s not essentially the case that they gained’t lose one thing among the many males consequently.
“Dissatisfaction, especially on economic issues”
tagesschau24: Let’s take a look at the problems that had been vital within the election marketing campaign. What are they?
Schönenborn: As they at all times used to say: “It’s the economy, stupid.” I used to be within the USA final week and seen how vital value will increase and the price of residing are for the individuals I spoke to there. And if we take a look at a comparatively new survey with figures from final week – with the query of whether or not the nation is creating in the best or the unsuitable course – then we see: When it involves the economic system, 60 p.c say the nation is creating within the unsuitable course, whereas with regards to the price of residing, the determine is 70 p.c.
When it involves international coverage, it’s a bit extra balanced: 56 p.c assume the nation is creating within the unsuitable course. Immigration is a robust subject for the Republicans, right here it’s 65 p.c. The two most negatively rated points are those who Trump could be very clearly campaigning on.
Then there are Harris’s points. These are primarily home points. The vote there too: general, issues are going within the unsuitable course. So dissatisfaction, particularly in financial points, jobs, housing prices, residing prices, will very doubtless assist resolve this election.
Would Trump settle for defeat?
tagesschau24: What appears to be rising is that if Trump had been to lose, issues may get actually tough – we bear in mind January sixth. Can we estimate whether or not the Republicans may deal with a defeat?
Schönenborn: Trump stated this week that it was a mistake to go away the White House 4 years in the past. I used to be at a marketing campaign occasion with Trump, the place I seen that the slogan “Never surrender” was on posters and T-shirts had been being offered with it.
We will certainly have this query. There can be a survey from final week on this, asking: Do you assume Harris or Trump will settle for the election defeat?
Three quarters imagine that Harris will – one quarter doesn’t. And with Trump, it’s the different approach spherical. 74 p.c imagine he won’t settle for an election defeat. And he additionally claimed victory on election day 4 years in the past, which he in fact didn’t win.
The query of how the votes are counted and what the outcomes appear like is one factor. The query of whether or not these concerned settle for it, whether or not there shall be a peaceable switch of energy – there’s a new particular person within the White House in any case – is in fact significantly related after the occasions of 4 years in the past.
“The Senate is expected to be Republican”
tagesschau24: This election may even resolve on the 2 parliamentary chambers. The Republicans dominate the House of Representatives, however the Democrats solely narrowly within the Senate. Who do you see forward within the polls?
Schönenborn: In the Senate, the prospects for the Democrats to retain the bulk are very, very slim. This is solely a matter of probability as to the place senators have withdrawn and the place new elections are due. A 3rd of the Senate is at all times re-elected. Theoretically, there’s a probability that the Democrats will retain the bulk. But then there must be some actually surprising leads to their favor. The Senate, it’s usually anticipated, shall be Republican.
In the House of Representatives, with over 430 seats, all of that are being newly elected, it’s much like the presidency: a neck-and-neck race. So we will assume that the presidential query shouldn’t be the one thrilling factor to do on Wednesday evening.
Source: www.nationalturk.com